At The Doug Moe Academy of Sartorial Splendor and Architectural Design: Drinks with My Republican Friend

For years I was able to quip, “None of my best friends are Republicans.”

Then I met Harry. Like me, he can’t stay away from politics. Like me he likes to drink.

Harry’s wife thinks the main reason we get along has nothing to do with any of that. Neither one of us look at the bright side of life. Harry and I think we are realists. Given the sunny attitude Americans bring to nearly everything, we are considered pessimists by most.

Harry’s wife thinks we get along so well because well, you know that old chestnut about the glass of water and whether it is half empty or half full. Harry’s wife says we look at that proverbial glass of water and say, “Its almost gone—and will you look at all the contaminants that are in it?

Friday Harry and I were in the same town. And so Friday night we met at Moe’s and gabbed.

He was in a lousy mood. He didn’t see how the Republicans could win the White House in 2008.

I asked him why.

Big Stuff

“Mostly its this damn war. Conservatives are not supposed to be nation builders. Conservatives are not supposed to be eager to be international activists. And it shows. Bush has botched this war just about every way it can be botched. The war will be wall-to-wall bad news from here til 2008.

“If you do the math, it’s even worse. Something like 61% of Republicans support the President on the war. But only 27% of American’s support the President on the war. The Republicans can’t win that battle. To get the nomination it looks as if Republican candidates will have to support the war. And with that in their portfolio, there’s no way they can win the general election where the war is the central issue.

“Then there are the other major issues. The issues that are making headlines: energy independence, national health care, immigration, the environment—these issues play to the strengths of the Democrats.”

He took a sip from his drink.

“There’s a classic problem with Republican politics. For the Republicans to be united and enthused, the conservatives have to be on board. All the conservatives have to be on board. That probably means the nominee has to be a conservative—or someone with a helluva lot of charisma—nobody in the current field has that. So for the Republicans to win, they probably have to nominate a conservative. And a moderate is at the top of the heap right now. That’s a problem.

“And then there’s the problem with the candidates.

“Romney is handsome. Guiliani has a viable street cred. McCain is liked by a variety of people. If the Republicans could roll all those qualities into one candidate, they would have a verifiable A-list candidate. The way I see it they don’t really have an A-list candidate. Guiliani and McCain are close. But close is not good enough.

“And the Democrats have three of them.”

Harry nodded.

Guiliani

I asked him about Guilliani.

“Sure he’s leading the polls. With the field the Republicans have now, he’d have to. Someone has to lead. That doesn’t mean that person deserves to lead. I think about Guiliani, and I roll my eyes. Did you get the answer he had to the abortion question at the debate last night? He said it would be okay of abortion was made illegal. He said it would be okay if remained legal. You can’t answer a question on an issue as important as abortion that way and be a viable candidate. You just can’t.

“Moderate Republicans have reason to like Guiliani. But as conservative Republicans find out more about his pro-choice status, his three marriages, that one marriage was to a second cousin, that his values don’t really fall into the classical Republican family values—my god, for a while he lived with two gay men. Can you imagine what conservatives will think when they hear about that! Two gay men! And all those pictures of him in drag—that’s enough to sink a campaign.

“It may not matter all that much, but I hold a grudge against Guiliani that he dropped out of his campaign to run for the senate against Hillary.

“And then there’s all that shady stuff that he can’t drop. His business partner, Bernard Kerik, did more shady deals than some gangsters. His law firm is a lobbyist for that Socialist Chavez. A socialist! My God, is this guy trying to be stupid?

“A cynic could say that Guiliani is where he is because he had one great day—on 9/11—the way I see it, that’s not going to be enough to move conservatives en masse to become passionate about him.”

McCain

I said the word “McCain,” and Harry winced.

“As I see it, his central problem is that he was a rebel. Conservative Republicans never warmed to his rebel bit. They saw it as something like disloyalty. Two things made McCain popular with independents—his crusades for campaign finance reform and against Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy. They are the same two positions that give conservative Republicans the jitters.

“Now he’s flipped on the Bush’s tax cuts. He was against them. Now he’s for keeping them. He’s embraced noted evangelists.

“He’s abandoned his rebel status. He’s tried to be someone more classically conservative. But this has unsettled many who liked the old McCain.

“He’s old. If he served two terms as president, he would be 80 at the end of his second term—if he lived that long.

“He’s had many health issues. He’s had cancer.

“He doesn’t like to do fundraisers. He’ll do em, but he doesn’t like em. Bad mistake. You can’t let stuff like that out. Big mistake.”

Harry finished his drink and ordered another.

“I have nightmares. I have nightmares that McCain is the Republican nominee, and during the first debate with the Democratic nominee, a reporter asks this question. ‘When you were shot down over Hanoi, you were shot down because you ignored the warning that a missile was headed toward your plane. You waited too long to try to dodge it. That caused you, your family, and, to some extent, your country, great pain. Will you say you made a mistake ignoring that warning? And what evidence can you present that you have learned from this incident and that you will avoid similar cocksure reactions in the future?’

“And in my nightmare, McCain blows it. He won’t say waiting to dodge the missile was a mistake. He fumbles the rest of the question. And it’s over for him.

“Don’t ask me about Romney. Don’t ask me about Romney. He’s a Republican Kerry—a flip flopper—a political opportunist conservatives will forever be suspicious off. He’s smooth. Sometimes he’s even slick. But he’s not warm enough to get people to trust him. I don’t care that Romney’s a Mormon—not a twit. I don’t care that one of Romney’s forefathers was a polygamist. It makes me question the sanity of his forefathers. But lots of people who are just fine thank you have nutty forefathers. My grandfather was a fan of the Washington Senators—a perpetually lousy team. You can’ t get much nuttier than that.

“But it matters that there is all that ignorance out there about Mormonism. Romney could hit this Mormonism thing out of the park if he showed some cajones. It would put some spine in his campaign. But he hasn’t done it yet.”

Harry took a sip from his drink. Then he said the word “Advisors.” He said it with contempt and hate and enough vitriol to start a forest fire.

The “P” Word

“Now Regan had many of the liabilities these guys have. He had passed a very liberal abortion bill in California. He had changed some of his positions, toned down others. But he was warm. He was likeable. People trusted him.

"Conservatives loved him. They were passionate about him.

“And to me that’s a central problem for the Republicans. They have their good moments. They have their strengths. But I don’t see any of em stirring passions.

“That’s really what elections are about. Elections are about passion. If you can get passion on your side, you’re halfway there. Some of the top three Republicans are likeable—sometimes. Every now and then they’re warm. But I don’t see passion. The passion is with the Democrats.”

“And I don’t see A-list.”

Polls suggest six in ten Republicans agree with Harry. But Harry didn’t need to be reminded of that.

Thompson—Fred not Tommy—the Actor not the Guy from Wisconsin

“So you agree with those who say, former Senator Fred Thompson, a man who wasn’t even on the stage the other night for the debate, won the debate?”

Harry nodded. But he didn’t smile. “Thompson has his series of issues. He’s got cancer. It may not affect him at all, but he’s got cancer. That’s a huge liability. Thompson has values issues. His first wife was pregnant when they married. Like so many of the Republican candidates, he’s divorced and remarried. He’s late to the party. He’ll be behind raising money. He’ll have trouble, at first any way, getting talented advisors. And there’s already someone in the Republican race whose name is Thompson.

“But he does have genuine conservative bonafides. He has presence. He has a great voice and phenomenal name recognition. If he’s smart, he’ll get his act together before he declares. If he does that, he could freeze Republican fundraising efforts. Then if he enters and makes a big splash, well that could be something to make me smile. That could make me smile. And if he does that, because he’s a conservative, because he’s an actor, and because he’s likeable, people will compare him with Regan.

“Now, if all that happens, and it’s likely that it will, that could be interesting.”

But Harry’s not the kind of guy to get out of a serious funk simply because something might happen in a few weeks.

Good News for Harry

I tried to cheer him up. “It’s early. The polls suggest that a few Republicans could win the election. The tables could turn ten times between now and November 2008. The war could change dramatically. It could end, or be as good as over. That would give Republicans a fighting chance. Or something bizarre could happen that could help the Republicans on this issue.

“You said that if Fred Thompson enters the race, it changes the dynamics completely. You said he’ll probably enter the race. If it matters, I agree. That changes the dynamics completely.

“Democrats lost to GW Bush—twice. They have a genetic predisposition toward botching presidential elections. They screwed up their message ending the war in Vietnam. They could screw up the way they end the war in Iraq. If they botch that, the election could go to the Republicans.”

Harry shook his head. “A-list candidates don’t make those mistakes. The Dems have three A-listers. Forgettabout what the polls say. The way things stand now, Republicans are dead meat.”

Idiots of the Week

This week four deserve the honor.

George Tenet who in his memoir which was published this week, At the Center of the Storm: My Years with the CIA notes that in August 2001 he met with Bush. Though he had the data to support it, Tenet did not impress upon the President the possibility of an attack like the one that took place on 9/11.

Also, attention must be paid to the three Republican candidates for the Presidency—Senator Brownback, Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Rep. Tom Tancredo—who raised their hands to answer the question, “Is there anybody on the stage that does not agree, believe in evolution? ”

Line of the Week

Courtesy of Craig Ferguson on The Late Late Show, “President Bush was on American Idol last night. . .. He made an appearance and afterwards the phone lines were jammed with people trying to vote him off.”