Election 2008: Hillary beats Rudy

For reasons that are very easy to explain, Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination.

Let’s not forget the obvious. She is smart. She’s savvy. She is very disciplined. She has excellent name recognition. She is intimately connected to the Bill Clinton presidency—a presidency that proliferated many economical and political prosperities. She has been more than competent during her six years in the Senate.

She is a good candidate. Unlike many, she will do the boring things (fundraising and more fundraising) and the painful things (more fundraising and even more fundraising) that are necessary to win.

One of her chief advisors is a former president, and a man who has one of the best political minds ever to step onto the American political stage.

She has assembled a team of experienced and talented pols to attempt to herd the thousand or so clowders of cats that have to be cajoled and charmed—and kicked and threatened—if a candidate intends to play the toughest of all games at the highest levels. She and they have run an excellent campaign.

Edwards and Obama have on occasion bettered her. Two examples include Edwards at The Riverside Church and Obama during the celebration of the March on Selma.
Edwards and Obama may, on occasion, go deep well. But Clinton grinds out the political ground game better than any of the other presidential candidates.

She is either very talented or very lucky.

As a green politician in charge of President Clinton’s health care initiative, Hillary’s tight-ship demeanor angered allies. Her unwillingness to bend now and compromise later made it easy for her foes to challenge and then defeat her efforts.

Her natural eagerness to be part of a pack was one of the many reasons she voted for the war in Iraq.

These were mistakes of the highest order.

Bad decisions—like the ones Hillary Clinton made years ago on health care and being an early supporter of the war in Iraq—usually turn into a sticky and gooey grime that politicians can neither hide nor dilute. Clinton has managed to turn a couple hectares of this glop into a mine rippled with deep, rich veins of experience.

Unlike Clinton, Obama made the right call on the war in Iraq all those years ago. He wisely attempted to make this campaign about judgment—and not experience.

Clinton has outflanked him. To voters, her experience matters more than his far more prescient judgment.

Obama’s entry into the race, and Clinton’s stature in the Senate have reduced Edwards to a third placer—in a country that can barely keep track of two candidates. Edwards has two things Clinton probably never will attain: a folksy likeability, and one issue for which he holds a genuine and deep passion—reducing poverty. But Edwards’ inability to gain traction outside of Iowa and Obama’s entry into the race have prevented Edwards from going head-to-head against the senator from New York.

Edwards and Obama are some of the best politicians to work a large hall in decades. But neither has achieved a similar mastery of the serial press conferences we call debates.

Clinton did.

She has survived the hits that plague every serious candidate. Last August two books were written about her. This allowed many of the sins of her past to be wadded into giant bombshells that were lobbed her way. More recently, one of her more effective money raisers developed a series of legal problems.

She and her team have responded quickly and effectively—without her or the machine suffering significant damage.

Her team has stolen effectively from the Bush 2000 campaign. There have been almost no long and deep discussions about controversial matters. But she has appeared and appeared (and appeared) in forum after forum. She appears to be accessible, but she hasn’t really been all that forthcoming. Unlike her husband, she has can focus like a laser on her message. And unlike most politicians, she is careful to temper whatever passions she has—she has committed no significant verbal miscues.

And she has shown she can triumph over prejudices. Months ago polls showed that Americans would rather elect a black man than a white woman to our nation’s highest office. But still she leads in the national polls.

For voters who favor Democratic policies or simply want change, the best news about the Clinton campaign is that she has neither said nor done things that will scar her deeply during a national political campaign.

Why Guiliani?

For reasons that are difficult to explain, Giuliani will win the Republican nomination.

Do not underestimate this man. He has managed to take one good day—his actions on September 11, 2001 and work them into such a froth that people think he is not only a good politician, but that he is also an effective leader.

Years from now people will still be scratching their heads and wondering aloud how a moderate Republican who is pro-choice, pro gun control, and has a very non-conservative approach to immigration could succeed so long and so well as a Republican presidential candidate.

He is a very savvy politician.

He speaks clearly. He deflects well. He’s projected images of toughness and decisiveness in a world that values the same.

He has been able to position himself above most of the fray.

This creates the calculus that others in the top tier will have maneuver to get what Giuliani never has aggressively sought—the mantle of the standout conservative who is from the conservative wing of the conservative party.

So like all successful politicians he has a good combination of talent (working one issue) and luck (all the others mauling each other to be the one to take on Giuliani).

A couple things will have to happen for Giuliani to succeed. McCain or others may attack Romney. Romney may just flop as the result of many of his earlier flips.
And Thompson must continue to be too timid to unleash the brimstone necessary for him to rise to the top of the top tier.

Whether Romney and the other contenders fold before the South Carolina primary, or someone emerges from the pack to challenge the current Republican leader, Giuliani will triumph.

The Election

The comments Giuliani has made about Iraq and health care and immigration—the same comments that helped him earn the nomination will hurt him a great deal—especially at first. His comments on the Iraq war and health care will hurt him with conservative Democrats and left leaning independents. His comments about immigration will hurt him with the conservatives in his party.

Clinton’s positionings as well as her message of change and hope will help her a great deal—especially at first.

Clinton will talk tough about domestic issues but adopt a play-it-safe policy on Iraq. The war in Iraq will ebb and flow in importance. Health care and apprehensions about the environment will be real assets to Clinton. Controversies about Giuliani’s decisions as mayor of New York and concerns about his lack of foreign policy experience will haunt him. Therefore, as they do in most presidential elections, on the issues, the Democrat will have the illusive high ground with most Americans.

But as it is every election year, Americans and its media will continue to be reluctant to be overly logical or particularly detail oriented. And because of this and other reasons, personality will play a far more important role that it should. Many will love Giuliani’s persona of the tough-guy decider. Hillary’s chilly public demeanor and multifaceted caution will plague her. In matters where personality triumphs, Giuliani will prevail.

Clinton will beat the experience drum.

Giuliani will try to cast thunderclouds of fear over the country.

There will be a lot of gibberish. Pundits will talk and talk (and talk) about whether back-to-back Clinton administrations, followed by back-to-back Bush administrations should be followed by another administration headed by someone named Clinton. There will be a lot of gibberish about what role Bill Clinton will have in a Hillary Clinton administration. A law prevents him from holding a cabinet post, so it is likely he will be an ambassador at-large.

There will be a lot of gibberish about Giuliani wearing dresses, living with gay men, and about his troubled relationships with members of his own family.

Both campaigns will respond to threats quickly, run successful ads, and campaign heavily in what the punditocracy will call the purple states.

The senator from New York will be admired for doing so well and being liked so little. The former mayor of New York City will be admired for doing so well while running against so many classic Republican policies.

Women, Hispanics, voters with graduate degrees, and many young people will support Clinton—often with what some might even call passion. Huge numbers of white men will line up behind Giuliani. And in November 2008 Clinton will be elected president.

In retrospect, to many it will not appear ever to have been all that close. But this will be a deception only fools and diehard Clinton supporters will embrace.

And it’s Aftermath

After the election, America will pat itself on the back—and almost every other part of its metaphorical anatomy—for being so open to a women—and a black. A more intelligent response will be from those who wonder why it took so long a woman or a black to reach so high and travel so far. Votes cast by Hispanics in the election will provoke many to use the words like “sea change” and “transformational.” The realities of Obama’s campaign will be tweaked as his future is aggrandized.

As Shrub’s presidency ends, many will consider the foolish decisions he made. There will be catalogue after catalogue of the failed policies he mismanaged. There will be assessments of the impact his mistakes had on his presidency and his party. Most will be far too kind. Only a few will be as harsh as the truth suggests they should be.

Many of the messes Shrub made are particularly pervasive, corrosive, and sticky. Plenty will wonder if Hillary Clinton—or anyone—is smart enough, savvy enough, determined enough, as well as talented and lucky enough to make political gold out some of the goo Shrub and his cronies will leave behind.

As teams of bright, passionate, and optimistic people prepare to grab the reigns of the most powerful nation the world has ever seen, optimisms and enthusiasms will flow naturally . . . and far too easily. Let’s hope that many in Clinton’s administration maintain an understanding of history as well as something that resembles balance. Those who do will have to realize how easily it will be for the blowback from the recent past to make a shambles of the present. Most of the problems Shrub faced are now worse because of his response to them. When the hoopla of the election finally fades, sober minds will have to realize that the problems that drowned Shrub’s administration could wreak the same havoc with Hillary’s.