TO: Barak Obama
RE: How You Could lose the Election
The conventional wisdom is that you will be the Democratic nominee. And the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will have many advantages in November:
Americans are tired of Bush;
Americans are tired of this awful war in Iraq;
Americans are tired of other Bush disasters, like the response to Katrina;
Americans are tired of all those tax breaks and other gifts that have been given to the wealthy;
Americans are tired of all those nasty things Bush has done to the environment.
You are a far better candidate than McCain.
Most of the issues help the Democrats—especially health care and the environment.
The Democrats have more money.
They even have Oprah.
The economy is headed South faster than a goose with dysentery.
Winning the election in November should be a cakewalk, right?
Wrong.
The Republicans still have fear. And, as long as the Democrats allow them to, the Republicans have “the surge” and all the political benefits it produces.
Why?
Because you and Senator Clinton have allowed the phrase “the surge is working” to roam around the political landscape almost completely uncontested.
This has allowed McCain and others to make a variety of illogical arguments about the war in Iraq. I’ll get to those in a moment—but first the surge.
The Surge
Baghdad and other cities in Iraq are more secure.
McCain would have you think this is because more US troops are in Iraq. That is only part of the reason violence has subsided. Much of decrease in violence is because the Shiites and the Sunni’s have decided to take a time out.
The Mahdi Army—made up mostly of Shiites—is maintaining a cease-fire.
The Sunni’s have severely reduced their violent ways. For the short term, they’ve seen the benefits of not attacking other Sunni’s. They also have decided to take weapons and money from the US. This way, when it is time to fight, they will have bullets and plenty of buckaroos. This has sometimes been called the Sunni Awakening. A more accurate representation might be, “arming for a civil war.”
Working?
Because comments about the surge working have been largely uncontested, because the overall situation in Iraq is complicated, because the reporting by the media has been so poor, and because on this issue the Democrats have acted like their old, incompetent selves, many Americans think that Iraq is on the mend.
This is nonsense.
Democrats have to explain how bad things are in Iraq.
Only on the military front are things noticeably better:
Sunni and Shiites still hate each other.
Homes in Baghdad get power around twelve hours a day—six less than under Saddam.
Oil production has not yet returned to pre-invasion levels.
Elections that were to take place in October have been cancelled. This shouts that Iraqi sovereignty remains a dream.
Political progress in Iraq is tinier than a freckle on a midget.
Corruption and incompetence run rampant throughout the Iraqi government.
Many US efforts in Iraq remain pathetic. For example, a large chunk of weaponry was supposed to be headed to the Iraq security forces: 110,000 AK-47s, 80,000 pistols, 135,000 units of body armor and 115,000 helmets—that’s right, enough equipment to make even a dumb white racist feel comfortable while taking a stroll through Watts—all of it, has been lost.
And there’s more bad news:
The Madhi Army—that’s the Shiite’s—their cease fire is about as durable as wet dollar bills.
The Sunni Awakening is being held together by substances that have the tensile strength of chewing gum.
Strategy
You don’t have to be a strategic genius to know it is better to attack a weak position than a strong one. The great military strategist, Sun Tzu said as much, “In war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.”
The idea that the surge is working is a strong one.
You and other Democrats have to debilitate this idea.
Republicans have made all kinds of political hay while the sun hasn’t been shining because they have been able to separate the surge from the overall health of Iraq.
You and other Democrats have to expand the overall definition of the surge to include essential services and political progress. The US could be in Iraq for a hundred years. But unless there is progress on essential services, unless the Iraqi government gets its act together, the US forces are little more than security guards at a rock concert.
The more you and the Democrats let the idea that the “surge is working” go uncontested, the longer Bush Administration’s concept of the surge remains credible.
As long as it remains credible, for McCain and the Republicans, the surge creates a giant platform.
McCain’s Plan
McCain argues that since the surge is working, the US should remain in Iraq. McCain argues that since the surge is working, the US can win the war in Iraq.
McCain hopes assertions like these will add credibility and gravitas to his “no surrender” rhetoric.
Your abilities to tap into huge reservoirs of emotion have been essential to your electoral successes. You are such an amazingly good communicator that you have been able to use concepts like “hope” and “change” to inspire people.
Most politicians use fear.
If comments about the surge are allowed to go unchallenged, fear of America losing the war Iraq may rise.
Many politicians will be reminded how, way back in 1972, the McGovern Democrats managed to lose an election and to immolate the Democratic Party’s national security credentials. The party still suffers huge issues regarding national security.
Polls suggest that the war in Iraq is not at the top of the list of voters’ concerns. But unless you change your tactics, it will be.
You have shown that emotion trumps the logical constructs Senator Clinton has been trying to create. But you’re brand of emotion—hope and opportunity—is very vulnerable.
McCain is intending to wave a huge flag. It’ll look like an American flag. But it’ll have fear written all over it: Fear of losing the war in Iraq. Fear of change. Fear that voting for you will lead to catastrophe.
McCain will try to plant that flag of fear smack dab the middle of the idea that the surge is working.
The Democrats should be saying things like, “Looking at Iraq only from a military point of view is what got us into this mess to begin with.”
Democrats have to link the surge with all the problems in Iraq.
You’re a smart guy. You know that hope and opportunity trump logic.
But do not forget this: fear trumps hope and opportunity.
27 comments:
Another mindless, nonsensical waste of bandwidth. Why dont I see any factual data listed here to back up all your idiotic claims. The Katrina battlecry. The enviormental card. The dems have Oprah ? Great, no one with any sense would want her on a political front. You know I am not even go to take this any further because talking to you people is useless.
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Hey thanks for the great blog, I love this stuff. I don’t usually do much for Earth Day but with everyone going green these days, I thought I’d try to do my part.
I am trying to find easy, simple things I can do to help stop global warming (I don’t plan on buying a hybrid). Has anyone seen that EarthLab.com is promoting their Earth Day (month) challenge, with the goal to get 1 million people to take their carbon footprint test in April?... I took the test, it was easy and only took me about 2 minutes and I am planning on lowering my score with some of their tips.
I am looking for more easy fun stuff to do. If you know of any other sites worth my time let me know.
Hi, I like your blog. I think it's very insightful and witty. However I have to disagree with some of your points. For starters, although I like Obama just as much as the next guy,and I plan on voting for him I dont think he will be the democratic front runner. That title will go to Hillary (unfortunately). Many people are too turned off from Obama due to recent controversy. From his pastors racist remarks, to calling middle and lower class voters "bitter", his presidential prospects looks bleak. Not only that, but I'm willing to bet my scholarship that there are a plethora of idiots out there who have reservations about his middle name (Hussein). Many will think that this is a ploy from islamic extremist to get one of their own in the white house. And the final reason, I know this sounds pessimistic but I doubt if the American hoi polloi is ready for a black president.
Anyway, I really like your opinions on the matter of Barack Obama and I would like to invite you (and anyone else who took the time to read this) to come visit my Blog. A Confederacy of Dunces at dp-acod.blogspot.com. Fell free to leave your opinions about the topics discussed. You wont be dissapointed.
Sorry one more thing. I'm putting a link from my blog to yours. If you mind send me an email at Deanstephens92988@yahoo.com and tell me to take it off.
I love it:
"You’re a smart guy. You know that hope and opportunity trump logic."
Me? I'm actually more of a logic guy.
This reminds me of a conversation I had with a friend the other day about the upcoming GE. It ended with him saying "Wait a sec. Are you telling me that after all of this, they're going to end up with the tax cuts and no troop withdrawals? Would that make them the "even angrier left"?
Hey! I agree that the surge as done little but postpone the inevitable civil war that will emerge after we start pulling out...great point. I was browsing through a bunch of political websites and blogs (mostly liberal ones) and I came across your blog and find it to be very interesting. There are a bunch of others I like too, like huff post, and other news sites like politico. Do you know of any that cover politics and the environment? I saw earthlab.com which has mostly environmental info but some politics. I took EarthLab.com’s carbon calculator (http://www.earthlab.com/signupprofile/). It was pretty easy to use (and it doesn’t make me feel guilty after I take it). Are there any other blogs you would recommend? Can you drop me a link to your favorites or any ones with green info?
Fun read...
I think Obama should just ask McCain about the difference between Sunnis and Shiites during a debate. That should do it.
Mad brilliant take.
I covered angle this well in my vlog.
Bored? Give it a peek:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5TP34zCZCg
I agree that there needs to be more vigorous debate about Iraq and that McCain has that advantage. But what I'm more worried about is the way Ralph Nader is trying to be a spoiler -- AGAIN!!-- and attacking only Obama on poverty. Wake up, Ralph, the way we got into this mess was because the Republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the wealthy and the oil industry. I wonder if Ralph is taking money on the sly from the GOP to ruin Obama's chances.
Maslow’s “Take” on the Election
By Bob Mann, Golf Professional
9/9/2008
Abraham Maslow said “To distract people from higher needs, threaten their lower needs.”
The Republican strategy of giving their convention a war and patriotism theme was quite brilliant. It changed the focus from such issues as health care, education, global warming and long term alternate energy development, and even to large measure, the economy; to the more fundamental human need to feel safe.
As Bob Woodward noted in his recent interview with Larry King, the President is not the Commander in Chief of the economy or global warming. The President is the Commander in Chief of the military.
The polls have shown that Senator McCain is perceived by the American public as more suited to be responsible for national security than Senator Obama. The Republicans are openly selling “inexperience” vs. Obama, but less openly they are selling “fear”. Ultimately, the peoples greatest fear, for themselves, and their families, is annihilation.
Unfortunately many people see bravado talk and aggressive action as the “answers” to fear related national security issues. (This, coupled with Senator McCain’s military service and family heritage gives many people a greater sense of false security.) However, the reverse is true; reserve, caution, negotiation, and having a strong military in reserve enhance national security. As President Clinton said, “..we lead by the power of our example, not by the example of our power.”
In spite of the evidence that we are militarily weaker as a result of the ill-founded invasion of Iraq, proposed by Senator McCain long before it actually occurred; a majority of Americans see Senator McCain’s approach to national security as being better then Senator Obama’s. Iraq has our military so over extended that we are not well prepared to face other situations that may arise, and are more likely to arise, because others recognize that we are over extended, which weakens our negotiating position.
Senator McCain continues to make hawkish noise; including implied threats that, as well as being inflammatory to other countries who might pose a threat, also distances us from our European allies.
In October 1st, 2003 on ABC nightline Senator McCain was asked how much more money the war would cost. He replied, “Estimates I hear as much as 50 to $55 billion more.” When asked, “Over a course of how many years?” McCain answered, “..four or five years.” Five years have passed with no end in sight, and Senator McCain’s estimate of maximum cost has been surpassed by approximately 10 to 1.
Senator McCain brags about his support of the Surge and its effectiveness. This claim is subject to serious question as many experts believe that the turn around in Iraq was more attributable to putting the enemies on our payroll. Moreover, Senator McCain’s bragging about the Surge can be compared to the person who makes a bad judgment about maintaining their car, but brags about repairing it at a cost many multiples of the original neglected service.
Senator McCain’s selection of Governor Palin to be a heartbeat away from a position of invoking nuclear holocaust on the world raises additional questions about his judgment, decision making process, and his motives.
Senator Obama’s campaign needs to make it clear that Senator McCain’s aggressiveness, has in the past, and will in the future, if left unbridled, weaken us militarily by depleting resources. It is not enough to merely point out Senator McCain’s bad judgment, the other shoe must drop, and Senator McCain’s bad judgment and hasty reactions must be clearly defined as weakening national security if permitted to affect our future. Senator Obama’s approach, using military force only as a last resort, and only following negotiation, strengthens us in two ways:
A) Enables negotiations to be conducted from a position of un-dissipated strength
B) Holds military might in reserve to use when and if genuinely required.
Senator Obama’s plan for better treatment of returning veterans coupled with his educational and occupational proposals for military personnel enhances recruiting and thus is superior for strengthening us militarily as compared to Senator McCain’s approach.
The Importance of rebuilding our alliances around the world should be more emphatically communicated as well, so Americans understand that we are stronger and more secure having Senator Obama as our next President, (who our European allies prefer over McCain by a 9 to 1 margin).
When Americans come to understand the superiority of Senator Obama’s temperament and approach to national security, compared to Senator McCain’s, they will recognize that Senator Obama is far more qualified to serve as Commander in Chief.
Maslow’s “Take” on the Election
By Bob Mann, Golf Professional
Katiko2@aol.com
9/9/2008
Abraham Maslow said “To distract people from higher needs, threaten their lower needs.”
The Republican strategy of giving their convention a war and patriotism theme was quite brilliant. It changed the focus from such issues as health care, education, global warming and long term alternate energy development, and even to large measure, the economy; to the more fundamental human need to feel safe.
As Bob Woodward noted in his recent interview with Larry King, the President is not the Commander in Chief of the economy or global warming. The President is the Commander in Chief of the military.
The polls have shown that Senator McCain is perceived by the American public as more suited to be responsible for national security than Senator Obama. The Republicans are openly selling “inexperience” vs. Obama, but less openly they are selling “fear”. Ultimately, the peoples greatest fear, for themselves, and their families, is annihilation.
Unfortunately many people see bravado talk and aggressive action as the “answers” to fear related national security issues. (This, coupled with Senator McCain’s military service and family heritage gives many people a greater sense of false security.) However, the reverse is true; reserve, caution, negotiation, and having a strong military in reserve enhance national security. As President Clinton said, “..we lead by the power of our example, not by the example of our power.”
In spite of the evidence that we are militarily weaker as a result of the ill-founded invasion of Iraq, proposed by Senator McCain long before it actually occurred; a majority of Americans see Senator McCain’s approach to national security as being better then Senator Obama’s. Iraq has our military so over extended that we are not well prepared to face other situations that may arise, and are more likely to arise, because others recognize that we are over extended, which weakens our negotiating position.
Senator McCain continues to make hawkish noise; including implied threats that, as well as being inflammatory to other countries who might pose a threat, also distances us from our European allies.
In October 1st, 2003 on ABC nightline Senator McCain was asked how much more money the war would cost. He replied, “Estimates I hear as much as 50 to $55 billion more.” When asked, “Over a course of how many years?” McCain answered, “..four or five years.” Five years have passed with no end in sight, and Senator McCain’s estimate of maximum cost has been surpassed by approximately 10 to 1.
Senator McCain brags about his support of the Surge and its effectiveness. This claim is subject to serious question as many experts believe that the turn around in Iraq was more attributable to putting the enemies on our payroll. Moreover, Senator McCain’s bragging about the Surge can be compared to the person who makes a bad judgment about maintaining their car, but brags about repairing it at a cost many multiples of the original neglected service.
Senator McCain’s selection of Governor Palin to be a heartbeat away from a position of invoking nuclear holocaust on the world raises additional questions about his judgment, decision making process, and his motives.
Senator Obama’s campaign needs to make it clear that Senator McCain’s aggressiveness, has in the past, and will in the future, if left unbridled, weaken us militarily by depleting resources. It is not enough to merely point out Senator McCain’s bad judgment, the other shoe must drop, and Senator McCain’s bad judgment and hasty reactions must be clearly defined as weakening national security if permitted to affect our future. Senator Obama’s approach, using military force only as a last resort, and only following negotiation, strengthens us in two ways:
A) Enables negotiations to be conducted from a position of un-dissipated strength
B) Holds military might in reserve to use when and if genuinely required.
Senator Obama’s plan for better treatment of returning veterans coupled with his educational and occupational proposals for military personnel enhances recruiting and thus is superior for strengthening us militarily as compared to Senator McCain’s approach.
The Importance of rebuilding our alliances around the world should be more emphatically communicated as well, so Americans understand that we are stronger and more secure having Senator Obama as our next President, (who our European allies prefer over McCain by a 9 to 1 margin).
When Americans come to understand the superiority of Senator Obama’s temperament and approach to national security, compared to Senator McCain’s, they will recognize that Senator Obama is far more qualified to serve as Commander in Chief.
I enjoyed your post. I have a friend currently serving in Baghdad who has kept me updated with regular emails. He informs me that from his point of view the surge is indeed working BUT that he expects all hell to break loose when America leaves. He sees nothing in place to keep a lasting peace. Thus, I think the problem with the surge is that maybe it can provide security, but it isn't a lasting solution. It doesn't stop America from having to spend billons of dollars on a pointless war.
My fellow Americans now that the first debates are over and you are hearing democrats and republicans tell you that they are looking out for you the middle class I quite assure you that they are not. Look back at the last forty to fifty years site a time when either party has showed fiscal responsibility. Just recently when gas prices peaked the democrats left on vacation and the republicans put on a show of looking out for your best interests knowing that nothing could be done without the other. In a way they are playing an elaborate game of good cop bad cop with the president being little more then a figure head to lay blame on regardless of the party. Case in point when there major campaign contributors got them selves in trouble they suddenly felt the need to work overtime and on weekends but when you where in trouble what did they do. Revolution is a patriotic act the love you feel for your country can only be protected by you or this will no longer be your country and that my fellow Americans is on the horizon. These blood lines need to be extinguished once and for all in congress and on wall street before we can take back our country the road ahead is not an easy one we will lose many of those we love but what you must now ask yourself is what kind of country do we want to leave our children and our children’s children. You have heard me preach buy guns buy ammo be ready the hour is late and time to save ourselves is very short the hour to move is coming very quickly be ready and stand with me my friends. Your country is calling will you answer the call or will you be a slave take that any way you want but a slave is a slave. Bailing out foreign governments and patting CEO’s on the back and saying its ok is not the answer they gambled and lost let the foreign governments get there money from the CEO’s stand on the right side stand with me your future is at steak.
One-Man Sensation
CITIZEN JOSH
a Jonathan Reinis Production
written and performed by Josh Kornbluth
in collaboration with director David Dower
October 9 through 26, 2008 in Crystal City
“Beautifully staged…It’s smart. It’s very funny. It’s another highly entertaining evening with Kornbluth.” —San Francisco Chronicle
“Kornbluth is a writer with great originality and depth and a spell-binding performer. What more can you expect from an evening at the theater?” —New York Daily News
Troubled by the election in 2004 and the health of American democracy, Josh Kornbluth (author of Red Diaper Baby) came to the conclusion that perhaps voting is just not enough. As a result of his distress, Kornbluth created this smart and funny exploration of active citizen participation. Just in time for election season, Citizen Josh weaves a web of entertaining and moving autobiographical tales into a personal quest to examine and engage the fundamentals of democracy. Kornbluth last produced Love & Taxes at Arena and continues his long-time association with our own Producing Artistic Associate, David Dower. So before you cast your ballot on November 4th, consider one last perspective from an irreverent, side-splitting and powerful citizen.
ONLY THREE WEEKS OF PERFORMANCES. Save 50% with the code: JOSH50! Tickets with code only $17.50!
Purchase Tickets HERE.
I stumbled across this website when searching for the quote about politics. So so true! You have great content. . . I will enjoy coming back and visiting this site. Please feel free to check out my blog. . . www.leahomar.wordpress.com
The most amazing Obama ad ever. Check it out and pass along:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfBKIa_X39c
Love him? Hate him? How do YOU feel about our soon to be former President? Take part in a chance to immortalize your views in book form by visiting http://goodbyegeorgew.com/ and letting your opinion be read!
Check out the following article about http://goodbyegeorgew.com/:
GOODBYE GEORGE W. WEBSITE STARTS NEW MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY
With the whole world watching the Obama transition kick in it’s easy to forget about the outgoing warmongerer-in-chief who rode to political power on his daddy’s coat-tails. Without so much as winning the popular vote the first time around George W. Bush took the White House in 2000. In 2004 he stayed the course for a second term thanks to classic Klan-style intimidation tactics in battleground states that squeaked the Bush /Cheney team back in for a total eight years on Pennsylvania Avenue. Surprisingly enough some semblance of Planet Earth survived and in retrospect we will miss the factual misstatements and grammatical blunders of the Presidential Poster boy for “No Child Left Behind” education.
Before he leaves office U.S. citizens and people form around the world are finally getting their chance to tell President Bush what they think. The new website www.goodbyegeorgew.com is building the democracy that the Bush Administration has worked so hard to erode. While welcoming sarcasm it is providing a general forum to write to the soon-to-be-unemployed President and give him your candid opinion by speaking out.
Letters are actively being sought to put the democracy and free speech back into America despite the hard work of the Homeland security team to eradicate it forever.
Of course this Goodbye George W. site comes replete with great political memorabilia on sale for the “historical” collectors. But what caught my attention is that the founder, Kate Wheeler, who I recently spoke with, is not making a hard sell on her goods but is more interested in putting the participation back into democracy and American politics.
This farewell to Bush will later be published into an e-book so anyone leaving their comments will be a part of this historic catharsis and collector’s item in itself.
I hope that the incoming President will get a hint from this as well and seek his own avenues to stay in touch with the opinion of the people that he was elected to represent. Once in office it wouldn’t be a shock if he gives his ears principally to the likes of Citigroup and J.P. Morgan, who were among the 10 biggest donors to the Obama campaign, (despite his “no strings attached campaign” propaganda).
The real change America needs is a White House and Government that listen to the people and www.goodbyegeorgew.com is a step in the right direction. It gives ordinary space for people to send our opinions to Washington. Of course, in this case, we’re giving our opinion to the man who is packing his bags (hallelujah), but it’s a good start on bringing back real democracy.
Anyone interested in setting a new course for democracy in this country should click over to this website and write their own heartfelt send off to the man who stole the presidency and steered a course into the diplomatic dark ages.
In Act A Federal Usury Law
The most PRODUCTIVE and NO COST thing that would greatly stimulate our economy would be to reestablish a federal usury law. Millions of Americans would have more money to spend if they didn’t have to pay 18% to 29% interest on credit cards and loans. The Federal Reserve realizes that, that’s why they have lowered the interest rates to banks. Unfortunately, banks don’t realize it and keep raising the interest rates on loans and credit cards. In turn that greatly restricts what Americans can spend and save.
The US has had a federal Usury law of 18% for hundreds of years. In 1980, due to inflation, Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act exempting federally chartered savings banks, installment plan sellers and chartered loan companies from state usury limits. This effectively overrode all state and local usury laws.
The absence of a uniform federal usury law has allowed banks to charge 18% to 29.9% interest on credit cards and loans. It causes banks to move to states that have more lax laws on interest rates. If that isn’t bad enough, it has allowed pay-loan and check cashing establishments to legally charge anywhere from 36% to 360% interest. That is worse that borrowing money from a loan shark or organized crime, which is illegal
I am really afraid of where this administration is taking this country. I mean really scared. How are we (Americans going to pay for the big bailout? Not to mention of why should we have to? We didn't make the debt.
When I was a little kid my parents became very good friends with a Germany Jewish family. Most of their family perished in camps. They would only tell my parents the real horror stories when they thought I had fallen asleep on the sofa. But 1 thing that really stuck with me through my whole life is "you don't know how easy it is to loose your liberty". They said when he (Hitler) 1st showed up everyone liked him b/c he was charasmatic, charming, gave a good speech...
The government would be a very poor health administrater. We have the best country in the world, and sick of hearing people trashing it.
It's up to everyone to educate themselves politically, and what I have seen and heard scares me to death.
I think this is an old post. Obama won and hes president right now. Doing presidential things. lol. cya
Two Voices | Two Guys
UN PRESIDENT TIM KALEMKARIAN, US PRESIDENT TIM KALEMKARIAN, US SENATE TIM KALEMKARIAN, US HOUSE TIM KALEMKARIAN: BEST MAJOR CANDIDATE.
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